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Book 10 · Epistemics: philosophy of science and calibration · Rung 1Book 10
For Doctors

Obesity Expertise · Book 10

Epistemics: philosophy of science and calibrationRung 1 · Introductory

How strong is the evidence, how sure should you be, and how to say you were wrong

Dr. Harsh Maheshwari · Version 1.0 · updated 14 October 2026 · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

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Why this book

A clinician or researcher is asked every day how sure they are, and usually answers with a tone of voice. This book treats confidence as something that should follow the strength of the evidence, and teaches the difference between a hypothesis, a finding and a belief. It shows how to put a confidence on a claim in plain words and say why, and why being wrong in public is a normal event in science rather than a disgrace.

How to read it

Read Book 0 first, or at least the sections this book names as it goes. Then read this one in order. The book asks you to build one thing: a dated written record of five beliefs you hold about your own field, each with a confidence attached. Start it when the book tells you to and keep it; the next book in this subject scores it.

Before you start

Book 0, in particular percentages (A4), ratios (A5), what a probability is (D1), the two-way table (D3), average and spread (D5), sampling (D6), random and systematic error (D7), reading a table (F1), checking a reference (F3) and the shape of an argument (F4). The mathematics is arithmetic with a calculator: turning a percentage into a fraction or odds and back, counting proportions in a small table, and filling a two-way table in natural frequencies. No algebra, no formula for Bayes’ theorem and no statistics beyond a mean, a range and, in the section on calibration, Book 0’s square-root law from sampling (D6), used to see how far chance moves a small tally of claims. You need something you have taught or written, and a notebook or file you will keep for the five dated beliefs.

1 Three kinds of statement: a hypothesis, a finding and a belief

2 A hypothesis is testable: the prediction, and the result that would count against it

3 One finding, several explanations

4 Belief beyond the evidence

5 Two kinds of support for a causal claim: a difference between groups, and a mechanism

6 Why evidence comes in strengths

7 GRADE certainty: four levels, where you start, and moving down or up

8 Certainty of the evidence is not the strength of a recommendation, and certainty has words

9 No evidence of an effect is not evidence of no effect

10 Confidence as a probability: putting a number on how sure you are of one claim

11 The same word read as different numbers

12 Calibrated scales: fixing what the words mean, and putting the number beside the word

13 Stating how confident you are, and saying why

14 The base rate: how often claims like this one hold up

15 Updating: changing your confidence by as much as the evidence warrants

16 Confidence is not accuracy: what being calibrated means

17 Changing a stated position out loud

18 How science corrects its record: correction, expression of concern, retraction, republication

19 Being wrong in public is common, and owning it costs less than hiding it

20 Saying “I was wrong about that”

21 The dated belief register: what you believe, how sure you are, and when you said it

22 Worked journey: One claim, from a belief to a dated line: “eating breakfast helps you lose weight”

References 369
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